Kate McCauley — Chief ExecutiveThe idea that Northern Ireland’s housing crisis is following the same trajectory as the Republic of Ireland’s has been circulating for some time. Much of the public conversation has centred on the intense affordability pressures facing renters in both jurisdictions. But our new all-island research goes further. It paints a fuller, more unsettling picture of how closely aligned the experiences of renters have become — and what this means for the future of housing across both jurisdictions.
We have identified three standout themes.
1. We are on the same track — even if travelling in different trains
Across Ireland, renting is often not a choice. It is a consequence of systemic failures elsewhere in the housing market. The data is stark: fewer than one in five renters in Northern Ireland are renting by choice, and in the Republic, that figure drops to just one in ten. For many, renting is not a lifestyle preference but a last resort.
Affordability pressures are biting hard. Six in ten renters in both jurisdictions struggle to cover rent and essential bills — a figure that rises sharply for those earning under €20,000 per year. This is not a marginal issue; it is a mainstream experience.
The research also challenges the idea of renting as a short-term phase. In reality, private renters spend close to a decade in the sector on average — 9.8 years in the Republic and 9.1 years in Northern Ireland. Yet this decade is marked by instability. Most renters stay in a property for only three to four years, often forced to move because of decisions made by landlords rather than personal choice. For families, the implications are profound. A child growing up in this sector may move home multiple times, repeatedly rebuilding friendships, routines, and sometimes even changing schools. The human cost of this churn is impossible to ignore.
2. The trains are closer together than we realised
The research reveals that in a housing context, NI and ROI are not just on parallel paths — the distance between them is narrowing.
House prices have surged dramatically in both jurisdictions: 50% in the Republic and 45% in Northern Ireland over the past five years. These pressures feed directly into the rental market, where affordability challenges are converging. Renters in Northern Ireland now spend an average of 32% of their income on rent, compared with 37% in the Republic — a much smaller gap than previously assumed.
Perhaps most striking is the emotional toll. A sense of hopelessness runs through the findings, particularly among younger renters. Only one-third of younger renters in the Republic believe they will ever own a home. In Northern Ireland, the figure is slightly higher at one-half, but still deeply concerning. One participant captured the feeling vividly: trying to climb a ladder without knowing where the top is.
3. The destination is bleak — especially when viewed from the North
If the current trajectory continues, the outlook is troubling.
Older renters face growing precarity. Many fear they will never leave the private rented sector and worry about how they will afford rent on a pension. With an ageing population in both jurisdictions, this is a looming crisis we are not adequately preparing for.
Younger renters, meanwhile, are making life-altering decisions in response to housing pressures. Some are planning to emigrate. Others are moving back into the family home, delaying independence and reshaping their life choices. This shift places additional pressure on older parents and raises questions about long-term wellbeing, opportunity, and social mobility.
Where change is possible
Despite the bleak trajectory, the research also highlights areas where meaningful progress can be made.
Deposit protection and renters’ rights stand out as immediate opportunities. The two jurisdictions have different levels of awareness and regulation in these areas, and there is no need to reinvent the wheel. Where one system is working well, the other can adapt and adopt.
There are also shared challenges — security of tenure and protections for vulnerable groups, particularly older renters, and the need for more stable rental pathways. The question now is, are there opportunities to learn from one another and approach these challenges in tandem, rather than in isolation?
A moment for shared action?
The experiences of renters in both jurisdictions are converging, the pressures are intensifying, and the consequences — for individuals, families, and communities — are profound.
If we are travelling on the same track, then collaboration and shared learning is essential. The opportunity now is to use this evidence to shape policy, share learning, and build a more secure, fair, and sustainable housing system across Ireland.
*This research was carried out independently by Ireland Thinks on behalf of Housing Rights and Threshold. The research was funded with support from the Shared Island Civic Society Fund.
